Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk May Be Real, But the Network Is Preparing: Report
Galaxy Digital’s latest report says the risk that quantum computing could compromise Bitcoin is real, but so is the work underway to protect the network.
The firm’s research frames the issue as a long-term engineering and governance challenge rather than an imminent crisis, with developers already building tools that could reshape how the network secures trillions in value.
At the center of the concern is a simple premise. Bitcoin relies on cryptographic signatures to prove ownership of coins. Those signatures, based on elliptic curve cryptography, are considered secure against classical computers.
How Quantum Computing could break Bitcoin
A sufficiently advanced quantum machine could break that assumption, allowing an attacker to derive a private key from a public one and spend funds without authorization.
The scenario has a name within the industry: “Q-day,” the moment a cryptographically relevant quantum computer becomes viable. The timeline remains uncertain. Estimates range from years to decades, and no consensus exists among experts. The report stresses that uncertainty itself is the problem. Bitcoin’s decentralized structure means upgrades take time, often measured in years, not months.
Still, the risk is uneven. Most Bitcoin is not exposed today.
Wallets only reveal their public keys when funds are spent, meaning coins sitting untouched behind hashed addresses remain shielded.
Vulnerability emerges in two main cases: coins whose public keys are already visible onchain, and coins in transit during a transaction.
Which Bitcoin is actually at risk
Galaxy cites estimates suggesting that millions of bitcoin could fall into the first category, including funds tied to early network activity and long-dormant wallets.
These coins, often associated with early adopters and even the pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, present a unique challenge. If quantum capabilities arrive before protective measures are deployed, such holdings could become prime targets.
The implications extend beyond individual losses. A sudden unlocking of dormant supply could ripple through markets, placing pressure on price and, by extension, on mining incentives that underpin Bitcoin’s security. The report frames this as a systemic risk, not just a technical flaw.
Yet the tone of the research is measured. Rather than signaling alarm, it points to a growing body of work aimed at preparing the network. Among the most prominent proposals is a new transaction structure known as Pay-to-Merkle-Root, outlined in Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360.
The design removes a key exposure point by eliminating always-visible public keys, reducing the attack surface for long-term threats.
Other ideas take a broader approach. One proposal, known as “Hourglass,” attempts to manage the fallout from vulnerable coins by limiting how q