‘ } CompaniesT. Surendar 9 min read 04 May 2025, 07:50 PM ISTHDFC Bank has aggressively expanded its retail presence by increasing the number of physical branches. (Mint)Summary Many brokerages believe that the worst is over for HDFC Bank’s stock—they have raised the target price for its shares. The bank, India’s second-most valued company after Reliance Industries, can now shake up the pecking order of top global banks. Mumbai: Late last month, HDFC Bank’s market valuation crossed ₹15 trillion, a landmark so far achieved only by Reliance Industries and Tata Consultancy Services. The record came after its shares ran up 35% in the last 12 months, helping it become the second-most valuable company by way of market capitalization. And subsequent to its latest quarter and annual results for fiscal year 2025 (FY25), broking firms have turned bullish on the bank’s prospects, raising the target price for its shares to between ₹2,250 and ₹2,340. That would mean a 17-22% increase from current share price levels of ₹1,924, resulting in a market valuation of about ₹17.75 trillion. In dollar terms, at a valuation of $210 billion, it would be as big as Bank of China and rank seventh in the global pecking order of top banks. The achievement, at this juncture, is noteworthy. The proliferation of private banking started after the economic liberalization in the early 1990s; a new crop of banks like IndusInd, ICICI and HDFC Bank made their appearance. In the last two decades, if the Indian economy has grown nearly 5x from a gross domestic product (GDP) of $800 billion in 2005 to $3.9 trillion in 2024, the valuation of the banking and financial services sector grew 50x. Now, as the Indian economy is further slated to grow to a $10 trillion economy, a private bank at the top of the valuation league table may well make it an important market bellwether. Says Abhay Modi, head of research at Helios Mutual Fund, who has tracked HDFC Bank for two decades: “Banking business is a solid proxy to play the Indian economic growth. Among banks, HDFC Bank has been our top pick as it has the balance sheet to scale up and has the best retail presence to tap into the growing per capita wealth.” HDFC Bank’s market performance also marks a remarkable turn of events. Prior to the recent run-up in the stock price, in the last 12 months, HDFC Bank was the laggard among its competitors. Once known for its high-teen growth in revenue and profits quarter after quarter, a series of events, which included a leadership change, slowed the bank. A sought-after stock, it had lost its premium after it began posting low-single-digit growth numbers as recently as six months ago. Given its size and importance, there are critical questions that need answers. What has changed for analysts to be bullish again? And what lies ahead? 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