Azerbaijan is intensifying its rare confrontation with the Kremlin as the repercussions of the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger jet unfold, underscoring Russia’s waning influence in the former Soviet Union. On December 25, thirty-eight individuals lost their lives when an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after diverting over the Caspian Sea from southern Russia. Following the incident, Azerbaijan’s authoritarian leader, Ilham Aliyev, accused Russia of inadvertently shooting down the aircraft with its air defense systems and criticized Moscow for attempting to “suppress” the matter for several days, which he claimed led to “surprise, regret, and rightful indignation” in Baku. Russian President Vladimir Putin subsequently issued a rare apology for the “tragic incident,” but did not acknowledge Russia’s culpability.
In the weeks that followed, Moscow has struggled to ease tensions with the oil-rich nation on its southern border. On Wednesday, the APA news agency, linked to the Azerbaijani government, reported that Baku is preparing to approach “an international court” regarding Russia’s alleged involvement in the plane’s downing. “Facts and evidence are being gathered, and preparations are underway to appeal to an international court,” APA stated in an article filled with sharp accusations against Moscow for attempting “to evade responsibility.” The article further claimed that the identities of those who ordered the firing and those who executed it are known to Azerbaijan, suggesting that Russia aims to create a situation similar to the “Malaysia Boeing-2” incident, referencing Russia’s denial of responsibility for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 by pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine.
APA warned that unless Moscow openly acknowledged its guilt and accepted responsibility, Baku would take additional measures. This article, which observers believe likely received approval from local authorities in tightly controlled Azerbaijan, followed a report from Kazakh officials indicating that the plane had suffered external damage and had numerous holes in its fuselage. The report was cautiously phrased and did not specify the cause of the damage, which affected the plane’s stabilizers, hydraulics, and trim systems. Western experts have previously suggested that the aircraft was likely fired upon from Russia. In response to the Kazakh report, the Kremlin stated that it was premature to draw conclusions.
Moscow’s ongoing silence has frustrated Azerbaijani officials. “We would have expected Russia to publicly take responsibility for shooting down the plane and compensate the victims,” remarked a source within the Azerbaijani foreign policy establishment, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “Instead, Russia simply ignores the crash, hoping it will fade away. It is condescending; they are looking down on us,” the source added. Tensions further escalated on Thursday as Azerbaijan…
