**Good Rainfall Expected in Southern and Central India, While Northwest Faces Shortfall**
Southern and central India are projected to receive substantial rainfall from January to March, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In contrast, the northwestern states, particularly Punjab and Haryana, are anticipated to experience below-normal precipitation during this period. Despite this mixed forecast, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, assured that the rabi crop would not be adversely affected, as the northwestern regions are well-irrigated and have full reservoirs due to previous good monsoon rains.
In a press conference held in Delhi, Mohapatra noted that the northeastern states, parts of Bihar, and Vidarbha are likely to experience one to three additional cold days, while Rajasthan is expected to have fewer cold days. He indicated that January’s monthly minimum temperatures are expected to be below normal across most of the country, although some areas in northwest and northeast India, as well as peninsular India, may see above-normal temperatures.
The IMD attributed the dry conditions observed in December to the lack of western disturbances, which typically bring rain and thunderstorms to the northwestern and central regions. Mohapatra explained that these disturbances are either moving northward or progressing too quickly, a change he linked to climate change. However, he mentioned that reduced snow cover from December to March could indicate favorable conditions for the upcoming southwest monsoon season.
Currently, La Niña conditions, characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, are present, with global forecasting models predicting a shift to ENSO neutral conditions by March. Mohapatra suggested that these neutral conditions could persist until June or July, potentially signaling a good monsoon season ahead.
Reflecting on recent climate trends, Mohapatra stated that 2025 was the eighth-warmest year since 1901, with the all-India annual mean land surface air temperature 0.28 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 long-term average. The warmest year recorded was 2024, with temperatures 0.65 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. He noted that seasonal mean temperatures during the winter (January-February) and pre-monsoon (March-May) seasons were above the long-term average, with anomalies of 1.17 degrees Celsius and 0.29 degrees Celsius, respectively. In contrast, seasonal mean temperatures during the southwest monsoon (June-September) and post-monsoon (October-December) seasons were close to the long-term average.
In summary, while southern and central India can expect beneficial rainfall in the coming months, the northwest region may face challenges due to lower precipitation levels. The overall climate patterns suggest a complex interplay of factors that could influence agricultural outcomes in the near future.
**FAQ**
**Q: How will the rainfall forecast affect the rabi crop in India?**
A: The rainfall forecast is not expected to negatively impact the rabi crop, as the northwestern regions are well-irrigated and have sufficient water reserves from previous monsoon rains.
