**Denmark’s Economic Outlook Dims Amid Novo Nordisk Challenges**
Denmark’s largest bank has revised its economic growth forecast for the nation, citing declining prospects for pharmaceutical leader Novo Nordisk A/S, which has been a key driver of growth in recent years. Danske Bank A/S now anticipates a 1.8% expansion of the Danish economy in 2025, a significant reduction from its previous estimate of 3.2% made in June. This adjustment is attributed to lowered expectations for Novo Nordisk’s performance and updates to historical data from the national statistics office.
The bank also noted that growth in 2026 is expected to be slower than earlier predictions, although it is projected to rise to 2.3%. Novo Nordisk has faced challenges this year, having revised its sales and profit forecasts downward twice due to increasing competition in the U.S. market and the emergence of generic versions of its popular obesity and diabetes medications, Wegovy and Ozempic. Consequently, the company’s stock has plummeted nearly 66% from its peak last year, negatively impacting consumer confidence in Denmark’s AAA-rated economy. Concerns about potential job losses and a broader economic slowdown are also prevalent.
In neighboring Sweden, economic growth is expected to be slower than anticipated, with a forecast of 1.1% for this year, before accelerating to 2% in 2026, adjusted for calendar effects. This shift is attributed to the easing of disruptions caused by unpredictable U.S. trade policies. Danske Bank predicts that the Swedish central bank will implement one more 25 basis-point interest rate cut this year to bolster recovery, as inflationary pressures from the summer begin to subside. Previously, the bank had expected rates to remain unchanged at 2% until mid-2026. Economist Susanne Spector noted that while inflation remains high, the Riksbank is likely to lower the policy rate to 1.75% in November as inflation expectations improve and resource utilization stays low.
In Norway, economic growth, excluding the offshore oil and gas sector, is projected to accelerate to 1.9% this year, up from an earlier estimate of 1.7%, driven by improved productivity. The forecast for next year remains at 1.6%, supported by an anticipated 125 basis points of monetary easing by the end of 2026.
**FAQ**
**What factors are influencing Denmark’s economic forecast?**
The downgrade in Denmark’s economic forecast is primarily due to weaker growth expectations for Novo Nordisk, alongside revisions to historical economic data. Concerns about competition and market dynamics in the pharmaceutical sector have also contributed to this outlook.
