Bitcoin Magazine
Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 50-50 as Senate Clock Runs Out
Galaxy Digital’s research arm has cut its estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% just three weeks ago, citing a Senate floor calendar that grows shorter each week and a bill that still lacks a merged text, a scheduled vote, or public commitment from leadership.
The downgrade, published by Galaxy researcher Alex Thorn, is a calendar story more than a substance story. The bill itself — the CLARITY Act, short for the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act — cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14 and has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 ever since. No floor date has been set. No motion to proceed has been scheduled.
The CLARITY Act represents the most significant attempt yet by Congress to build a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. It draws jurisdictional lines between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, establishes standards for when a digital asset is a commodity versus a security, and includes the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which provides protections for certain blockchain developers and node operators.
The bill passed out of the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support, a notable threshold in a political environment where crypto legislation has often stalled on party-line divisions.
The House passed a version of market structure legislation in 2024, but Senate action has been the harder lift. Banking and Agriculture committees both have jurisdiction, and staff-level reconciliation of the two committee texts is still underway. No unified legislative text has been made public.
The calendar problem with the CLARITY Act
For a 60-vote bill — one that needs to clear the filibuster — the math is tight. The Senate is scheduled to begin its August recess at the end of July. Between now and then, a merged Banking-Agriculture text still needs to be finalized, a motion to proceed must be filed, floor debate must occur, and an amendment process must run.
After all that, the House would need to act on whatever the Senate produces.
Thorn wrote that Senate Majority Leader John Thune needs to announce floor time by early July “at the latest” for a July vote to be realistic.
Without a scheduling announcement on that timeline, the path shifts to September — and September runs into midterm-election dynamics that make scheduling controversial votes difficult.
The competition for floor time has intensified. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act lapsed on June 12 after Congress failed to pass a reauthorization, and a Grassley-Cotton-Warner product still needs floor time.
The FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act, a must-pass annual defense bill, also remains unfinished.
And on June 24, President Trump canceled
