Donald Trump had barely settled into the Oval Office when he conducted his first meeting with a foreign leader in late 2016. Shinzo Abe, then Prime Minister of Japan, visited Trump Tower in November that year, bringing a gold-plated golf club as a gift and aiming to establish a strong foundation for the Japan-US relationship under Trump. The outcome of Abe’s diplomatic efforts had significant implications, especially since Trump had hinted during his campaign that he might withdraw US troops from Japan unless Tokyo increased its financial contributions to their postwar alliance.
Abe’s strategy proved effective. During Trump’s five-nation tour of Asia in late 2017, he and Abe, who was tragically assassinated in 2022, connected over a round of golf—an activity that Abe seemed to embrace enthusiastically—and enjoyed gourmet hamburgers together. Throughout Trump’s presidency, Abe provided unwavering support to the US administration, a contrast to many of his peers. As a result, US troops remained stationed in Japan, and the bilateral security treaty, a cornerstone of Japan’s postwar foreign policy, remained intact.
As Japan’s current leader, Shigeru Ishiba, prepares for a three-day visit to Washington, attention is focused on whether he can replicate Abe’s personal connection with Trump, although it’s unlikely that golf diplomacy will feature prominently, given Ishiba’s interests. When they issue a joint statement in Washington following their discussions on Friday, Japan will seek familiar assurances from Trump: that the US will defend Japan, particularly in any conflict with China over the contested Senkaku Islands, a commitment to stability in the Taiwan Strait, and ongoing support for the region’s stance against North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
While Trump has primarily targeted Mexico, Canada, and China with his tariff threats, Ishiba is aware that Japan, which boasts a $56 billion trade surplus with the US, could also be drawn into a trade conflict. “We have a lot of topics to discuss,” Ishiba remarked to MPs this week. “I hope to set priorities and achieve results within the limited time we have.”
In exchange for security guarantees, Trump will likely expect reciprocal actions from Ishiba, who is known for his cautious approach and is not accustomed to the high-stakes negotiations typical with the leader of the world’s largest economy. However, Ishiba will not arrive in Washington empty-handed. Like his recent predecessors, he aims to increase Japan’s defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, which will likely involve purchasing US-made military equipment. He will also remind Trump that Japan has been the leading source of foreign direct investment in the US for the past five years and emphasize the role of Japanese companies in creating American jobs. Additionally, he may present plans for new Japanese investments, including a $44 billion gas pipeline project in Alaska. Ishiba will be the second foreign leader to meet with Trump in this capacity.
