South Africa Faces Ongoing Power Outage Risks, Warns Electricity Minister
South Africa continues to be at risk of power outages due to unexpected breakdowns at existing power plants and delays in commissioning new facilities, according to the country’s electricity minister. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa expressed concerns about the current strain on the power system during a conference in Cape Town. He noted that maintaining a stable power supply is a significant source of anxiety for him.
The nation, which is Africa’s largest economy, has experienced years of rolling blackouts as Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., the state utility responsible for over 80% of the country’s electricity, has struggled to meet demand. Although the frequency of outages, locally referred to as loadshedding, reached unprecedented levels in 2023, they were temporarily halted in March of the previous year. Eskom attributed this pause to improved maintenance and the postponement of retiring older plants until new capacity could be added.
However, intermittent power cuts have occurred this year due to equipment failures, raising concerns about the reliability of plants operating beyond their intended decommissioning dates. A recent incident at the Koeberg nuclear plant, once considered Eskom’s most dependable facility, underscored the system’s vulnerability when one of its reactors tripped over the weekend. On February 23, Eskom implemented Stage 6 power cuts, removing 6,000 megawatts of generation capacity to avert a total blackout.
Jason Lightfoot, a portfolio manager at Futuregrowth Asset Management in Cape Town, highlighted that the renewed outages raise alarms about potential systemic weaknesses. With winter approaching and demand expected to rise, he emphasized the need to address the implications of this instability and the risk of further loadshedding.
In the coming decade, Eskom plans to decommission coal-fired plants with at least 15 gigawatts of generation capacity and has been working on replacing some of that output since early last year. The utility reported that projects aimed at generating up to 2,000 megawatts of renewable energy are either in progress or set to begin implementation within the next three years.
Eskom’s CEO, Dan Marokane, presented expansion plans to lawmakers in December, which included ambitious and unfunded projects involving gas, nuclear, and hydro technologies. The rise in private generation has provided some relief to South Africa’s electricity challenges, with a record 501 new facilities, totaling 4,178 megawatts, registered last year, according to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa.
However, government initiatives to procure power from large-scale projects have faced numerous delays. Recently, the deadline for the first bid window to supply 2,000 megawatts of gas-fired power was extended by seven months to address various issues for bidders, as noted in a recent announcement by the Department of Mineral Resources.
