It’s a lively morning at the Dongmen wet market in downtown Taipei. Mr. Yu is calling out to passersby, eager to sell his boxes of freshly steamed dumplings. Between customers, the self-proclaimed “dumpling king” and his wife, Ms. Liao, share their thoughts on Donald Trump. “He’s very positive, energetic,” Yu remarks while handing flour-dusted coins to a customer. Liao adds, “The dancing! Isn’t he in his 80s?” Yu nods in agreement. However, when asked about Trump’s implications for Taiwan, the elderly couple’s enthusiasm wanes. “With higher tariffs, prices will rise, and people won’t be able to handle it,” Yu states. “He just wants money,” Liao shrugs.
During Trump’s previous presidency, he enjoyed considerable popularity in Taiwan, viewed as a strong counter to China’s threats of annexation. His first term saw a surge in US arms sales to Taiwan, increased US naval activity in the Taiwan Strait, and a break from tradition when he accepted a phone call from Taiwan’s then-president Tsai Ing-wen, which bolstered her administration’s legitimacy.
However, Trump’s potential return has caused global upheaval, from the closure of USAid and negotiations with Russia over Ukraine to discussions about annexing Greenland and Canada, and taking control of Gaza for “redevelopment.” His statements regarding support for Taipei have been inconsistent, leaving the island feeling uneasy. A reduction in American support could lead to a significant crisis for Taiwan.
“The Trump administration has already shown a willingness to abruptly deviate from decades of bipartisan US policy on China,” says Bethany Allen, head of China investigations and analysis at ASPI. “[It] signals a shift away from liberal democratic values in foreign policy, raising concerns that US support for Taiwan may no longer be tied to its identity as a democracy worth preserving.”
China has long threatened to invade and annex Taiwan if it does not peacefully accept “reunification” with the mainland. A military modernization campaign led by Xi Jinping is bringing Beijing closer to executing this threat. Support from the US, Taiwan’s primary ally, is deemed essential for the island’s survival. While the US officially maintains ambiguity about its military defense of Taiwan against a Chinese attack, former president Joe Biden has repeatedly indicated that the US would likely intervene.
The US provides Taiwan with billions of dollars in arms under legal obligations to ensure its defense and employs its military and foreign policy to uphold the peaceful “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait. However, Trump is now questioning the value of US support and has suggested charging Taiwan for protection. He has accused Taiwan of “stealing” the US semiconductor industry and criticized trading partners, including Taiwan, for running surpluses against the US.
